Database • List of indicators •
Sources of data • Software for projection •
Description of system
Software for demographic projection
Software for
demographic projection is a VBA program for calculation of demographic
projections. Microsoft Excel spreadsheet is assigned for storage
of input data and projection results only.
Requirements for software on the user's computer. You can
use this program only if Microsoft Excel 97 or later version is
installed.
How to use? Three buttons control the calculation.
The first one is called "Set years".
It lets you finalize the table for input and output data, and clear
the table if needed.
In order to calculate the projection, the input data are required.
The ranges in blue are required,
the lightgreen are optional ones, that the program can fill itself.
First of all the required data are
 population size at the beginning of the projection period
by 5year age group and sex,
as well as the future of
 agespecific mortality rates by sex;
 agespecific fertility rates per 1000;
 agespecific emigration rates per 1000;
 number of arrivals by age and sex in the period directly
preceding the projection period.
Then the scenario of calculation is required:
 total fertility rate displays the mean number of children
will be born to one woman during her lifespan provided that in each
age the level of agespecific fertility equals to that in the period
when that rate was measured. We know no examples of TFR less than
0.5. The TFR maximum is set to 10;
 mean age at childbearing, it is assumed to range between
21 and 35;
 life expectancy for males and females. Life expectancy
at birth is the average number of years a person from some hypothetic
cohort of newborn will live provided that during his or her lifespan
the level of mortality in each age will be equal to this rate measured
in a given year. The model assumes that life expectancy ranges between
30 and 100;
 infant mortality rate, the number of infant deaths under
1 per 1000 lifebirths. The allowed range of it is 1 to 100 per 1000
lifebirths;
 share of males among the newborn  is assumed to range
between 0.4 and 0.7, although it always ranges 0.5 to 0.6;
 number of arrival per year. It is assumed to be less than
10 billion people;
 annual number of outmigrants per 1000 population, not more
than 100 per 1000.
Besides you may specify
 agespecific mortality rates by sex;
 agespecific fertility rates per 1000;
 agespecific emigration rates per 1000;
 number of arrivals by age and sex in any future period.
These values will be used for projection. However the following
principle is valid  the scenario is more powerfull compared with
age rates since all the rates will be matched to the scenario variables.
After the scenario is set, press button "Fill
gaps in scenario". The program will also check whether
or not all the required data are available.
Finally, button "Launch projection"
starts the calculation job.
In order to provide correct execution of demographic
projection you are recommended not to open it in a browser, but
to download it from the site and save
it on a hard drive of your computer (press right mouse button, then
select "Save object as..."), then open it as Excel file
with the macros enabled.
See on the page ukraine.php
the example of results that can be obtained at utilizing the program
of demographic projection for different scenarios of future population
development in Ukraine. See similar results for Georgia  at georgia.php,
for Belarus  at belarus.php.
Graphic presentation of projection results
New version of projection software
lets the user graphically present in automatic mode the dynamics
of basic output demographic indicators of projected population.
Main functions and modes of plotting the graphs
Worksheet Figures of file projection2.xls
is assigned for drawing the graphs. In a vertical order one under
another the following graphs are being plotted: dynamics of population
size, number of births, number of deaths, natural increase, nnumber
of arrivals, nnumber of departures, total increase, birth rate,
death rate, rate of natural increase, rate of outmigration, rate
of inmigration, rate of increase. The absolute numbers are given
for fiveyear periods, the relative indicators  per 1000 population
per annum.
There is an opportunity to draw 1 to 4 scenarios of future population
dynamics. Numbering of scenarios is done from the end: the last
scenario computed obtains the number 1, the last but one  2, etc.
If more 4 scenarios were computed, the graphic presentation will
be drawn for the last four. The fifth and more earlier scenarios
will be "lost" at the graphic module of program.
In order to draw projected population dynamics you should perform
the following:
1. In the worksheet Projection press button "Clear graphs"
and confirm deleting the worksheet Figures.
2. Set up the scenario and make projection according to the instructions
above. Browse the results of projection. If they do not suit something,
skip to the beginning of p.2 and reform the scenario and recalculate
the projection. If the projection results fit and must be used for
plotting, press button "Save results for drawing".
3. If you need 1, 2, or 3 more scenarios of projection, you can
make this by repeating the required number of p.2. If all the needed
scenarios are completed, to draw the graphs, press button "Draw
graphs" in the worksheet Projection. You will be autoopened
worksheet Figures, where 13 graphs will be drawn.
4. You can reformat the graphs obtained or copy them to another
aplication if required using the standard tools of MS Excel.
The informationanalytical system is developed under
the support of the Russian foundation
for humanitarian research,
project 040212003в "Development of information system of
socialdemographic data with the Internet access".
Version of page projec.php
 1.5. Last updated 06.12.2006.
