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Институт демографии Национального исследовательского университета "Высшая школа экономики"

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Information-analytical system 

Database • List of indicators •  Sources of data • Software for projection •  Description of system

Software for demographic projection

Software for demographic projection is a VBA program for calculation of demographic projections. Microsoft Excel spreadsheet is assigned for storage of input data and projection results only.
Requirements for software on the user's computer. You can use this program only if Microsoft Excel 97 or later version is installed.

How to use? Three buttons control the calculation.
The first one is called "Set years". It lets you finalize the table for input and output data, and clear the table if needed.

In order to calculate the projection, the input data are required.
The ranges in blue are required, the light-green are optional ones, that the program can fill itself.

First of all the required data are
- population size at the beginning of the projection period
by 5-year age group and sex,
as well as the future of
- age-specific mortality rates by sex;
- age-specific fertility rates per 1000;
- age-specific emigration rates per 1000;
- number of arrivals by age and sex in the period directly preceding the projection period.

Then the scenario of calculation is required:
- total fertility rate displays the mean number of children will be born to one woman during her lifespan provided that in each age the level of age-specific fertility equals to that in the period when that rate was measured. We know no examples of TFR less than 0.5. The TFR maximum is set to 10;
- mean age at childbearing, it is assumed to range between 21 and 35;
- life expectancy for males and females. Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a person from some hypothetic cohort of newborn will live provided that during his or her lifespan the level of mortality in each age will be equal to this rate measured in a given year. The model assumes that life expectancy ranges between 30 and 100;
- infant mortality rate, the number of infant deaths under 1 per 1000 lifebirths. The allowed range of it is 1 to 100 per 1000 lifebirths;
- share of males among the newborn - is assumed to range between 0.4 and 0.7, although it always ranges 0.5 to 0.6;
- number of arrival per year. It is assumed to be less than 10 billion people;
- annual number of outmigrants per 1000 population, not more than 100 per 1000.

Besides you may specify
- age-specific mortality rates by sex;
- age-specific fertility rates per 1000;
- age-specific emigration rates per 1000;
- number of arrivals by age and sex in any future period. These values will be used for projection. However the following principle is valid - the scenario is more powerfull compared with age rates since all the rates will be matched to the scenario variables.

After the scenario is set, press button "Fill gaps in scenario". The program will also check whether or not all the required data are available.

Finally, button "Launch projection" starts the calculation job.

In order to provide correct execution of demographic projection you are recommended not to open it in a browser, but to download it from the site and save it on a hard drive of your computer (press right mouse button, then select "Save object as..."), then open it as Excel file with the macros enabled.

See on the page ukraine.php the example of results that can be obtained at utilizing the program of demographic projection for different scenarios of future population development in Ukraine. See similar results for Georgia - at georgia.php, for Belarus - at belarus.php.

Graphic presentation of projection results

New version of projection software lets the user graphically present in automatic mode the dynamics of basic output demographic indicators of projected population.
Main functions and modes of plotting the graphs
Worksheet Figures of file projection2.xls is assigned for drawing the graphs. In a vertical order one under another the following graphs are being plotted: dynamics of population size, number of births, number of deaths, natural increase, nnumber of arrivals, nnumber of departures, total increase, birth rate, death rate, rate of natural increase, rate of out-migration, rate of in-migration, rate of increase. The absolute numbers are given for five-year periods, the relative indicators - per 1000 population per annum.
There is an opportunity to draw 1 to 4 scenarios of future population dynamics. Numbering of scenarios is done from the end: the last scenario computed obtains the number 1, the last but one - 2, etc. If more 4 scenarios were computed, the graphic presentation will be drawn for the last four. The fifth and more earlier scenarios will be "lost" at the graphic module of program.
In order to draw projected population dynamics you should perform the following:
1. In the worksheet Projection press button "Clear graphs" and confirm deleting the worksheet Figures.
2. Set up the scenario and make projection according to the instructions above. Browse the results of projection. If they do not suit something, skip to the beginning of p.2 and re-form the scenario and re-calculate the projection. If the projection results fit and must be used for plotting, press button "Save results for drawing".
3. If you need 1, 2, or 3 more scenarios of projection, you can make this by repeating the required number of p.2. If all the needed scenarios are completed, to draw the graphs, press button "Draw graphs" in the worksheet Projection. You will be auto-opened worksheet Figures, where 13 graphs will be drawn.
4. You can re-format the graphs obtained or copy them to another aplication if required using the standard tools of MS Excel.

The information-analytical system is developed under the support of the Russian foundation for humanitarian research,
project 04-02-12003-в "Development of information system of social-demographic data with the Internet access".

General description New in IAS

Version of page projec.php - 1.5. Last updated 06.12.2006.

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Demoscope Weekly is supported by:
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The Russian Foundation for Humanities - www.rfh.ru (2004-2007)
Institut national d'études démographiques (INED) - www.ined.fr (since 2004)
UNESCO - portal.unesco.org (2001), UNESCO Moscow office - www.unesco.ru (2005)
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