Software for demographic projection
Example of utilizing the software
for demographic projection for development of various scenarios
of future population dynamics in Ukraine:
Projection of population size in Ukraine
Population size by the
end of period for scenarios: low (red), medium (blue), high (green).
This graph displays the results of population projections
for three scenarios called "high", "medium",
and "low". Main difference in population scenarios for
Ukraine in the nearest future used in the model calculations of
software for population projection
is in the values of total fertility rate. TFR is equal to 1 in the
low scenario, 1.4 in medium, and 2.2 in the "high" one.
The example shows that Ukraine will depopulate even if the value
of TFR is at the zero-replacement level in the first half of the
21 century. In this case the population size will be less than 36
million. Having the current trends remained it may become less than
The information-analytical system is developed under
the support of the Russian foundation
for humanitarian research,
project 04-02-12003-â "Development of information system of
social-demographic data with the Internet access".
Version of page ukraine.php
- 1.0. Last updated 15.02.2006.