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15 June - 31 July 2020

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Institute of Demography at the National Research University 'Higher School of Economics'

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Information-analytical system 


Software for demographic projection

Example of utilizing the software for demographic projection for development of various scenarios of future population dynamics in Ukraine:

Projection of population size in Ukraine

Population size by the end of period for scenarios: low (red), medium (blue), high (green).

This graph displays the results of population projections for three scenarios called "high", "medium", and "low". Main difference in population scenarios for Ukraine in the nearest future used in the model calculations of software for population projection is in the values of total fertility rate. TFR is equal to 1 in the low scenario, 1.4 in medium, and 2.2 in the "high" one.
The example shows that Ukraine will depopulate even if the value of TFR is at the zero-replacement level in the first half of the 21 century. In this case the population size will be less than 36 million. Having the current trends remained it may become less than 30 million.

The information-analytical system is developed under the support of the Russian foundation for humanitarian research,
project 04-02-12003- "Development of information system of social-demographic data with the Internet access".

General description New in IAS

Version of page ukraine.php - 1.0. Last updated 15.02.2006.

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Demoscope Weekly is supported by:
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The Russian Foundation for Humanities - www.rfh.ru (2004-2007)
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