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Методика оценки влияния структурных и социально-экономических факторов на динамику числа родившихся и умерших

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Volume 66

№ 2, July 2011

The world at 7 billion
By Carl Haub and James Gribble

Even though the world population growth rate has slowed from 2.1 percent per year in the late 1960s to 1.2 percent today, the size of the world's population has continued to increase - from 5 billion in 1987 to 6 billion in 1999, and to 7 billion in 2011. This Population Bulletin looks at the four phases of the demographic transition as descriptive of past and future population growth. We highlight four countries to illustrate each phase and its implications for human well-being: Uganda (high birth rate, fluctuating death rate); Guatemala (declining birth and death rates); India (approaching replacement-level fertility); and Germany (low or very low birth and death rates).


December 2011

A post-recession update on U.S. Social and economic trends
By linda A. Jacobsen and Mark Mather

The Great Recession in the United States began in December 2007 and officially ended in June of 2009, resulting in a broad-based decline in America's economic well-being and security.1 The job and housing markets have still not recovered, and the number of people in poverty increased more between 2009 and 2010 than in the year following any other recession since 1962.2 This update focuses on the period since 2008 to assess the ongoing impact of the recession in the United States.

Between November 2009 and November 2011, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the United States dropped from 9.9 percent to 8.6 percent. Rates remain high among all major racial and ethnic groups, although they have declined from the peak levels of 2009


Volume 67

№ 1, September 2012

Household change in the United States
By Linda A. Jacobsen, Mark Mather, and Genevieve Dupuis

The number of households in the United States more than tripled between 1940 and 2010-from 35 million to 117 million-and household growth outpaced population growth in every decade across this time period. Accompanying this growth in the number of households has been a gradual but significant transformation of household structure. While in 1940 the overwhelming majority of households (90 percent) contained families-two or more persons who were related to each other-by 2010, this share had dropped to 66 percent. Household structure plays an important role in the economic and social well-being of families and individuals. The number and characteristics of household members affect the types of relationships and the pool of economic resources available within the household.

In this Population Bulletin, examine the dramatic changes in U.S. household structure in the last 70 years, and how households differ by important characteristics such as age, race and ethnicity, and education. The authors analyze trends in the key social processes driving household change, and examine groups of people born in the same year or decade (birth cohorts) to see how the lifetime experiences of individuals have changed. New types of households and families are emerging in the United States in response to changing social norms, economic conditions, and laws governing marriage, and we discuss challenges in capturing these new family forms in demographic surveys.


№ 2, January 2013

Achieving a Demographic Dividend
By James N. Gribble and Jason Bremner

One of the goals of development policies is to create an environment for rapid economic growth. The economic successes of the "Asian Tigers" during the 1960s and 1970s have led to a comprehensive way of thinking about how different sectors can work together to make this growth a reality. Referred to as the "demographic dividend," this framework helps explain the experience of certain countries in Asia, and later successes in Latin America, and is creating a sense of optimism for improving the economic well-being of developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

The demographic dividend refers to the accelerated economic growth that begins with changes in the age structure of a country's population as it transitions from high to low birth and death rates. With fewer young people relative to the population of working-age adults, and with the successful implementation of key national policies over the long term, countries such as Thailand and Brazil have reaped the rewards from their demographic dividend. But many policymakers mistakenly think that a demographic dividend results automatically from a large population of young people relative to the population of working-age adults without the needed population, social, and economic policies. This is not the case.

This Population Bulletin explains the demographic dividend in terms of demographic changes, investments in human capital, and economic and governance policies. The experiences of Asia and Latin America in achieving their dividends are highlighted, as are the prospects for African nations. The last section outlines issues that countries need to plan for as they move beyond their demographic dividend.


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