http://www.nber.org/papers/w24355.pdf

В данной работе на основе данных более чем о 100 млн. рождений в США за период с 1989 по 2016 г. показывается, что для последних спадов экономики в стране характерно начало снижения зачатий за несколько кварталов до начала этих спадов. На основе тщательно анализа различных данных делается вывод о том, что поведение в области деторождения является опережающим и более чувствительным к изменениям в краткосрочных ожиданиях в отношении экономики, чем это было ранее. Поэтому этот показатель можно использовать для прогнозирования спада экономики.

Contents

Abstract

I. Introduction

II. Evidence on Conceptions and Recessions

II.A. Graphical Evidence
II.B. Statistical Evidence

III. Understanding the Forward-Looking Nature of Conceptions

III.A. Comparisons to Other Leading Economic Indicators
III.B. Abortions and Fetal Deaths

IV. Discussion

V. Conclusion

References

Tables

Table 1: Correlations between Conception Growth and GDP Growth
Table 2: Granger Causality
Table 3: Annual Abortion Data

Figures

Figure 1: Conception and GDP Growth Rates
Figure 2: Conception and GDP Growth Rates Near the Great Recession
Figure 3: Conception and GDP Growth Rates Near the 2001 Recession
Figure 4: Conception and GDP Growth Rates Near the 1990 Recession
Figure 5: Conceptions (seasonally adjusted) and NBER Recessions
Figure 6: Deviatons from Trend Growth Conceptions and GDP -CF Filtered
Figure 7: Conception Growth Rates and Changes in Unemployment
Figure 8: Conceptions Growth Rate and Consumer Confidence
Figure 9: Conceptions and Durables Growth Rates
Figure 10: Conception and Housing Price Growth Rates
Figure 11: Miscarriages and Recessions: Evidence from New York
Figure 12: Growth Rates in Conceptions and Births Using Annual Data

Appendix

Appendix Table 1: Selected Events Before and During the Start of the Great Recession
Appendix Table 2: Correlations Between Conception Growth and State-Level Economic Fluctuations
Appendix Table 3: Granger Causality Using State-Level Data
Appendix Figure 1: Conception Growth Rate, by Month
Appendix Figure 2: Conceptions Growth Rate and Unemployment
Appendix Figure 3: Growth Rates for Conceptions and Ovulation Kit Purchases
Appendix Figure 4: Using Scanner Data to Track Conceptions, Estimates from a Post-Lasso Model