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Старение населения в индустриальных странах:
проблемы и решения.
Конференция в Токио 19-21 марта 2001
Conference on Population Ageing in Industrialised
Countries:
Challenges and Issues
NUPRI, Tokyo, 19-21 March 2001
Organised by
the IUSSP Committee on Population Age Structure and Public Policy
and
the Nihon University Population Research Institute (NUPRI)
Call for Papers
The age structural dynamics of a population and public
policy are strongly interrelated. Age structural transitions include
declines in mortality and fertility, as well as related changes
in family and social arrangements. Policy affected by transitions
covers aspects of human needs (e.g., human development, education,
labour force, health), economic (e.g., savings and consumption,
fiscal, taxes), and institutional aspects (e.g., governance, planning,
implementation). Public policies aim to improve the welfare of a
population; population welfare in turn is determined and shaped
by the needs of present and future population; a population's needs
and its potential are strongly shaped by its demographic composition
- i.e., by age-structural transitions. The committee believes that
transitions may be analysed in three (not exclusive) groupings:
countries in emergent demographic transitions faced with substantial
developmental challenges, countries in a later transitional stage
facing challenges of economic and institutional change, and post-transitional
countries facing challenges relating to ageing, low fertility, and
so on.
This conference will focus primarily on the third group,
i.e. post-transitional countries. Over the past few decades, there
have been rapid changes in the age structures of populations in
many developed countries. In Western Europe, North America, Australia
and Japan, the proportion of people aged 60 and over is increasing
markedly and is raising formidable social and economic challenges
related to the financial support of elderly people and to the provision
of care for frail elderly. These fast changes in the age structures
of populations have been driven by declines in fertility and increases
in life expectancy, especially at very old ages.
In addition, the patterns of family formation and dissolution
have changed significantly in recent years. In all industrialised
countries, people have been marrying later and consensual unions
have become increasingly common. Women in all developed countries
have been changing the timing of childbearing over their lives.
As the decline in fertility followed prolonged baby booms in most
countries, the size of cohorts entering labour and marriage markets
has also changed enormously. The decline in fertility was also accompanied
by continuing falls in mortality, which in some countries, like
Japan, have been dramatic, and which may have played a role in altering
the interaction among family members during their lives as well
as producing a more aged population. All these demographic changes
have altered the dependency structure of populations, thus generating
a wide range of disruptions at both societal and familial levels.
A major aim of the conference is to explore the economic,
social, and demographic consequences of these transformations in
the age structures of the population and related developments in
family patterns. These consequences include changes in people's
economic behaviour, particularly in the labour market, but also
regarding patterns of consumption and intergenerational transfers
of money and care, and changes in economic inequality among families,
households and individuals. Furthermore, there are consequences
for state policies, including education, taxation systems, income
support, state pensions and other redistributive policies. For instance,
women's labour supply and human capital accumulation appear particularly
likely to be affected by age structural transformations and related
developments in family patterns. Their labour force participation
over the life cycle, lifetime earnings profiles and pension rights
are all likely to be influenced.
But, of course, the changes in age structures of population
and in family patterns did not occur in a vacuum. They were influenced
by economic developments, like changes in women's earning opportunities,
and by state policies. For instance, equal opportunities policies
may have changed the timing of childbearing and family size and
patterns of union formation and dissolution.
This conference will bring together experts that will
examine the relations between changes in the age structures of populations
on one hand, and families, government policies, and markets on the
other. Some papers will also be devoted to an analysis of the changing
status of elderly people as the processes of age structural shifts
advance.
The conference will include both invited and submitted
papers. Limited funding is available to help defray the costs of
attendees. The organisers invite submissions in the form of detailed
abstracts or full-length papers.
Submissions should be sent to Shripad Tuljapurkar (tulja@mvr.org),
Naohiro Ogawa (ogawa@eco.nihon-u.ac.jp)
and
Anne Gauthier (gauthier@ucalgary.ca)
with cc to iussp@iussp.org.
Deadline: 15th October, 2000.
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